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Sri Lanka Navy Journal 32

Figure 4. Trend Analysis of Nuclear Powered Submarines (SSN) in China

22. There is an increasing trend in number of nuclear powered submarines owned by
China with in the period of 1971-2010. Quadratic trend model was fitted to the data and
Mean absolute percentage error of the model is 32.7 and the Mean absolute deviation is
0.7321.

DISCUSSION

23. The distribution of power will be determined by the ability to control choke points
and to attack maritime vehicles of all sorts on the open waters of the IO. In the absence
of a collectively generated institutional framework an escalating process of cultivating
the capacity to do so is likely to continue. This capacity will be determined by the type of
submarines and available strategic skill of commanders at the disposal of any given nation
state at any given point in time. The access to satellite data will also contribute significantly
to this capacity.

24. Possessing an SSBN gives India a hidden, mobile platform armed with
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). Unlike land based ICBMs it is difficult to locate
and destroy submarine ones, since submarines are mobile, can remain submerged while
travelling and can take cover in submarine trenches and other bathymetric features. Any
hostilities with India will unleash a hunt for submarines that will affect all other countries in
the neighbourhood as well and draw on scarce resources causing economic distortions and
affecting the physical quality of life in the region. A tendency to balance forces by balancing
land troop size with ICBMs cannot be avoided and her SSBNs give India a clear supremacy
in this respect. Other nations with submarines can either aid the activities of India or seek
to disturb them. Both actions will generate tensions and demand increased expenditures.
Competitors may also seek to acquire SSBNs to build their own ICBM platforms. This may
be accompanied by an increase in the acquisition of attack submarines and submarine
surveillance equipment as well as missile defence systems in response to the threat of
submarine based ICBMs.