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“Deterrence through Detection” UNCLASSIFIED

threats on global commons. Our darkest fear is the possible precipitation of these events
across geographic spaces into our shores.

11. Whilst the threats of traditional and non-traditional security persist, ‘proxy

interventions’, ‘hybrid warfare’ and ‘grey zone tactics’ have surged as common
transnational challenges to global security, particular in the maritime domain. Available
data suggest that our oceans are witnessing a proliferation of ‘dark shipping’ that are
taking refuge among the ungoverned spaces in the vast ocean expanses. In addition,
there is the high possibility of small states being strategically coerced by bigger states
and proxy Multi-National Corporations (MNCs) into compromising sovereign rights on
the governance and management of respective Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and
Continental Shelf.

12. Amidst the competing strategic interests of global power players, the
subcontinent is to take centre stage in the Indian Ocean theatre. The subcontinent,
especially the South Asian nation states are a peculiar formation. Despite the
geographical proximities and the enduring cultural and identity commonalities these
modern democracies have lesser integration among themselves in comparison to other
regional constructs. However, India has asserted itself as the regional net security
provider, and undoubtedly the vital factor in the region’s collective advancement and
progress.

13. Meanwhile, a few of its neighbours dispute this assertion. Further, India has out
rightly expressed its concerns over China’s increasing presence in the Indian Ocean,
which has already added into its basket of strategic concerns complicating the existing
‘Himalayan Conundrum’. Hence, India’s self-preservationist means and methods shall
precede and define its outreach and relations with its neighbouring countries. Already
the South Asian region is in turmoil, with the status of Pakistan, Maldives and
Bangladesh recently. We had a near escape, but things are far from over.

14. The island state’s progress and future prosperity lies with leveraging the
maritime frontier. Unhindered passage of global commerce, security of its sea and
virtual lines of communication and a rules based good order at sea are essential and
integral in the realization of such aspirations. Abject denial, neglect and confusion in
strategically appraising the maritime frontier would be catastrophic for our survival as
a nation state. It is always in the best of our interest to deter opportunistic intrusions
and denying a situation of ‘faith accompli’ that would be hard to undo. Lest 1987 remind
us of this bitter reality.

15. Already we have witnessed one of the largest marine environmental disasters in

known history flagged under ‘MV X-Press Pearl’ off Colombo in May 2021. The incident
alone exposed and illuminated our institutional, legal and resource incapacities to
respond and manage such eventualities. We were inadequately equipped as a first
responder despite understanding consequences of maritime accidents, through more
recent events in our maritime zones, international waters and global sea lanes.

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UNCLASSIFIED “Deterrence through Detection”