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“Deterrence through Detection” UNCLASSIFIED

profound impact how we need to assess our strategic context and approach. Unlike
Singapore and United Kingdom the island state lacks considerable narrow maritime
spaces (with an exception of the Palk Strait), where a small force can have a significant
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and decisive impact. This has a considerable impact on resourcing of our maritime
forces. Neither do we have the remoteness of space as in the case of New Zealand and
Iceland for defence nor are we part of a strategic defence/security umbrella. Over the
course of the post-independence history, our territorial integrity and defence was
defined and dependent on the goodwill of other power players. Hence, it is important
that we consider the adjacent vast expanse of maritime space as a ‘hinterland’, from Gulf
of Aden to Malacca Strait. It is not too ambitious to think of solutions governed by
different ideas.

8. Moreover, the island is also located athwart major shipping lanes connecting the
East and the West; Asia to Arabia to Europe. Considering these facts, Sri Lanka should
be considered a ‘maritime nation’; essentially realize the need for an assertive maritime
orientation. It is no exaggeration, that we need to identify ourselves more than a ‘coastal
state’ with restrained ambitions that does not go beyond a ‘sea power’ state. As a state
we remain committed to multilateralism. We are dependent on a rules based
international system for our security, defence and development. Ironically, throughout
our post-independence history to date the island’s strategic outlook, especially defence
and security were skewed; inward oriented. This approach needs to be recalibrated
with the realities of our time and context.

9. We are in a decade that is defined by incalculable outcomes, chaos and

unpredictability. As we bear witness to a string of disruptive innovations and creative
disruptions sweeping across the globe, there is also an apparent shift of world order to
the East. This has given way for more political and economic assertiveness resulting in
regional militarization and alliances building. We live in a world that is ideologically
more polarized and geopolitically more fragmented. Already the cyber space is being
weaponized and the space remains the final frontier. Our fears of perpetual wars are
becoming present realities as the multilateral order that defined the past decades is
disintegrating to an abyss. Contentions have preceded cooperation and dialogues.
Already, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has become the theatre of this phenomena. As
this unfolds, small states are dragged and drawn into spheres of contending ideologies
and interests of existing and revisionist powers and Sri Lanka in particular is not
immune from the evolving strategic context.

10. Meanwhile, the best estimates suggest that there is an apparent global economic

slowdown in the coming years. Indeed, the ‘COVID-19’ pandemic had a considerable
impact in disrupting supply chains. However, what is transpiring in the Red Sea and
Eastern Europe provides a glimpse of this stark reality, with intensifying attacks and

4 A particular force posture provides the overall disposition, strength (quantity & quality) and state of
readiness of armed forces. This could be further depicted through the Defence Resources Triangle: ‘Force
Structure’; ‘Modernization’; ‘Readiness’.

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UNCLASSIFIED “Deterrence through Detection”